25th Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3 - 8 September 2006, Hamburg, Germany
Paper ICAS 2006-1.9.1

AN ENHANCED SCENARIO APPROACH ASSESSING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE REALIZATION OF NEW AIRCRAFT AND TECHNOLOGIES

S. Eelman
TU Munich, Germany

Keywords: scenario methodology, indicators, uncertainty

Successful realization of new aircraft technologies into serial applications is threatened by uncertainties, especially during the first life cycle phases. An enhanced, dynamic scenario methodology allows a-priori to assess uncertainties with empirical and frequency analysis of numeric scenario results. Interfaces are defined to transfer these into instruments of technology strategy.

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