23rd Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, 8-13 September, 2002, Toronto, Canada
Paper ICAS 2002-R8

ON THE CALCULATION OF COLLISION PROBABILITIES AS AN ASSURANCE OF SAFE SEPARATION BETWEEN AIRCRAFT

L. M. B. C. Campos, J. M. G. Marques
IST, Portugal

Keywords: collision probablility, safe separation assurance

The paper discusses a variety of possible safety metrics, including the maximum and cumulative probabilities of coincidence, probabilities of overlap, collision rates and collision probabilities; and applies them to horizontal, and vertical separation in controlled and transoceanic airspace. Comparison is made with the ICAO target level of safety (TLS) of probability of collision less then .000000005 per hour.

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