21st Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, Melbourne, Australia, 13-18 September, 1998
Paper ICAS-98-R.1.9.2

APPLICATION OF EXPERT METHODS TO RISK ASSESSMENT OF AIR TRANSPORT SYSTEMS

Smalko Z., Jazwinski J.*, Zurek J.*
Warsaw University of Technology, Poland; *Air Force Institute of Technology, Poland

Keywords: expert methods, risk assessment, air transport systems

This paper describes the elements of statistical decision making process based on ex-pert assessment. Failure rate functions for aircraft components have been accepted as a measure of risk when flying aircraft. Whereas, the conditional probability of occurrence of dangerous events that may result in specific unairworthiness, has been proposed as a measure of hazard when flying aircraft. The triangular probability distribution has been found to be very useful for calculating subjective probability of dangerous events to occur during operational life. Positional parameters of the distribution are referred to as: pessimistic, optimistic and the most likely service life. The presented method allows to consider uncertainty conditions in terms of risk conditions. Expert judgments after appropriate processing and describing can be used for improvement of products, prevention of failures and post-accident analysis.

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